The Nation recently carried a two-page spread on the traffic congestion that is bedevilling us all. The news is that 5,000 new cars are, on average, now being registered every month, while the road network is barely expanding.
Too many cars, too few roads. And so we read the tales of the poor folks who get up at 4.30 am just to make it to work on time. We feel for the miserable souls who spend 4 hours every day in their cars, just going to and returning from their workplaces. And we wonder about the cost of it all: the wasted time; the extra maintenance; jangled nerves that lead to poor productivity; the pollution. Many countries estimate the cost of congestion in billions of dollars.
This column has covered the subject of traffic congestion in the past; but there is a message that is still not getting through. Most people regard this as a ‘supply’ problem: we need more roads. No argument there: we need to put in more roads as a national priority. So far so good: it’s the government’s fault. Give us more roads! Sorry to rain on you as you seethe self-righteously in your daily jam session, but more roads are only the starting point of the solution.
The rest of the answer is more unpalatable, as it requires a bold look at the ‘demand’ side of the ‘car-road’ equation. Why are so many cars being registered? Whenever you see over-consumption of a product or activity, you have to wonder whether the price has been set too low. And in this case it is obvious: the cost of owning and maintaining a vehicle in Kenya is ridiculously low, if you consider the TRUE cost of the activity. In Kenya we have the baffling situation that being poor does not prevent anyone from owning a car.
The problem is not that car-sellers, petrol retailers and mechanics are selling their products and services at below cost; far from it. The problem is that no-one is factoring in the societal costs of too many cars. All that pollution and congestion is a cost that every driver imposes on everyone else; but no one driver is asked to pay for it. The result: too much driving and, eventually, gridlock.
What to do? Here’s where it gets unpopular. Higher taxes on vehicles, especially older cars. Strict imposition of duty. Outright banning of cars more than a few years old. A properly administered annual test of roadworthiness of all cars more than, say, 5 years old. Much stricter licensing.
Why is this not done? Because Kenyans regard driving in their own cars as a God-given right, not a privilege. Because too much ‘mitumba‘ car importation is done by well-connected big shots. Because this will be a vote loser, not a vote winner. Because our institutions are too corrupt to impose a proper system of tests and fines.
Economic logic, therefore, is being ignored every day. No-one bears the full, true cost of driving; the tailbacks get longer. This problem cannot be fixed by the likes of you and me: a sensible higher authority is needed. That higher authority would impose costs so that we have the right number of cars; that authority would plough the money gathered back into transportation – it would build more roads, and open up a public transport market.
We already have a public transport network, incidentally; we just have a poor one. Our matatus are controlled by cartels, and we do nothing about it because those in authority are also the owners of the cartels. In bus and train transport, we create monopolies rather than a competitive industry. If we made all passenger-service providers behave and follow the rules, and if we allowed a variety of players in the industry, all those people who need to get to work would do so, at a price and a comfort level that suited their pocket. Without having to get into a 20-year-old banger that has no place on the road.
In this, as in so many things, our problem does not lie in investment as much as it does in management. It’s not the lack of money that cripples us; it’s the way we do things. We need to be very, very thoughtful about new roads and connection nodes. We need an intelligent framework of incentives and penalties. We need fair and strict enforcement. We need a market structure that encourages competition without ignoring regulation.
So there are the answers. More roads, but fewer cars as well. More duties, taxes and penalties. Better regulated private provision of public transport. Is it going to happen? Nope, because it’s never MY car that causes the problem, it’s always everyone else’s. Because we will kick and scream if anyone tries to raise the cost of driving. Because government will never act in the national interest as long as people with vested interests make policy.
So it’s going to be tailbacks today, tailbacks tomorrow. Keep on jammin’.
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{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
It is amazing that I hardly find any points on which to disagree with you. But yesterday’s article was different.
First, you defined the problem of traffic congestion quite well but your prescribed solutions were not altogether the most efficient in my view. Starting with thinking at the margin, my view is that if we consider the road a good (which it is), then its occupation by a car means that someone else is excluded from using it at that time and therefore the occupier ought to pay for the privilege of that exclusion. There’s no convincing reason for me why this ought to be based on the age of the car.
At the same time, the congestion implies that there’s a great demand for a cheap product as you correctly and smartly argued. However, not all roads are in high demand at the same time and therefore to go about it by restricting supply of cars throughout the country would be to fail to concentrate on the roads that are most in demand. Good public policy would demand that the costs of motoring on these particular roads be raised. You have figured out what the economist here will argue. The way out for Kenya’s roads is not as much about restricting supply by arbitrary and paternalistic law but by charging for entry into CBD and other roads that are in greater demand. That money could then be used to develop better public transportation systems. An appropriate price would lead the rational driver to consider whether driving into CBD for a few more hundred shillings would be worth it. That is where the conclusion that driving is cheap would lead. London has applied the same with a high degree of success.
Aged vehicles have their own costs and these are mostly of the environmental and pollution kind. This may be solved through regulation yes and also by raising fuel prices to tax that inefficiency.
My intention is not to be vituperative but merely to extend to its conclusion the profound insight that motoring in Nairobi in particular is a bit too cheap.
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Dear Kwame:
Thanks for a thoughtful contribution – not ‘vituperative’ at all!
Let me first agree with you wholeheartedly: road pricing is indeed the way to go. If you look at the ‘related articles’ I have published earlier, road pricing is recommended and the London experience highlighted. There was simply not the space available in the current piece to repeat the argument again. However, we would have to think hard about a workable system of charging. Toll booths would cause additional delays, so a high-tech solution of some sort would be necessary, as in London and Singapore. Perhaps a public-private partnership could pull this off. But it would be a vote-loser, and I wonder which government would have the nerve to do it.
On age of cars: I agree that the relevant criterion is ‘roadworthiness’, not age. I am merely suggesting age as a broad proxy, easy to manage and enforce. Ideally, as suggested in the article, we should have an annual test of roadworthiness for cars over a certain age. But I fear we may find that difficult to execute, as it may open up new channels of corruption. If done well, however, that would be the way to go.
Old cars in poor condition, I repeat, have no place on the roads. During last week’s sudden cloudburst, I counted at least one old banger stalled on every road, blocking the traffic and causing huge delays. An old jalopy can be bought for as little as Shs 100,000 and put on the road for little extra cost. That is silly: the cost to society must be factored in.
Fuel prices: yes, a higher fuel levy would deter many – but would also do the thing that you want to avoid: raise the cost of travel for the whole economy, with its knock-on effects on inflation and competitiveness.
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The supposed solutions being bandied around seem to skirt the real issue bedevilling our roads. I’m not convinced all these punitive charges will sort out our perennial jam problem as we will end up creating more avenue for corruption.
We need to sort out the public transport system as an alternative to personal commuting. By making it more secure, efficient and reliable more Kenyans will be willing to take a bus ride than drive. Already as we speak driving is extremely expensive in terms of fuel used in deadlock jams, poor road network causing regular maintenance and parking fees.
I’m sure the cost-conscious Kenyan will give it a try if public transport becomes what one expects it to be. To achieve this end we need to replace personal single ownership with fleet structured ownership to enable policing and bring in discipline. The current mode of ownership is the cause of the chaotic status of the sector. A sector estimated to be worth Sh20 billion is not to be left to a faceless cartel.
Ole Turana
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Dear Ole Turana
Thanks for adding to the debate – though I wasn’t aware I was ‘bandying about’ solutions! Hopefully what I suggested is a little more thoughtful than that.
Your comments on public transport are well made. If Kenyans are offered a real alternative, they will stop driving. Look under ‘related articles’ to see where I have made the same case, arguing that our current set-up combines the chaos of competition with the rigidity of cartels. Your point about regulating the nature of ownership is interesting.
But you also say that driving is ‘extremely expensive’. There I disagree – and so do the 5,000 rushing to get registered every month! Driving is clearly not expensive enough in relation to our ‘scarce’ roads, particularly as we do not impose societal cost (not in purchase price, not in maintenance, and not in fuel) on the individual.
Even countries with decent public transport systems do have to put a disincentive on driving, because the availability of roads can never match the individual’s desire to drive. The point is that driving should be available to those who use it for significant economic benefit – not as a free-for-all.
I repeat the point that this is less about investment, and more about management – of incentives, regulation and market structure.
[Reply]
Hi Bindra,
A further view on the expensive element. My understanding is that as we speak DRIVING is a cost element that Kenyans have had to put up with not because it fits well with their pocket but as a result of the chaotic nature of public transport.
Owning a contraption is increasingly becoming easier due to a number of factors principally ease of access to credit from banks and employers and “cheap” vehicles.
This one-off cost is not a deterrent for owning the pricey item but the recurrent costs remain high-let me add relatively high.
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DEAR Mr. Bindra,
I read most of your articles with interest…. and would like to comment on the terrible traffic jams which is a normal part of suffering for all.
If there was a ‘problem corner’ ( like THE NAIROBI WE WANT article sometimes back,) in any of the newspapers where general people could voice their opinion and high-light the trouble area or how to ease the congestion, it would enlighten the authorities.
To start with I could start with the problem which I face every day.
I take the Outer Ring Road near Kariokor Market and this is a one-way traffic from Pangani Police Station to Kariokor Market and invariably the traffic is at a snail’s pace……WHY…???/ BECAUSE THERE ARE AT LEAST 2 OR 3 MKOKOTENI BEING PULLED IN BOTH THE DIRECTIONS at any given time and all the motorists are at their mercy and travel at their pace.
Mkokoteni should be done away with and perhaps an economist like your good self can find out how much fuel is wasted and the carbon released effects the environment and individuals.
You may have also observed that the mkokoteni is also on the highways and the traffic gridlock it creates. Actually if you assess the mkokoteni loaded with the veg/fruits, and if you try and work out, you will find that the goods are worth about 10 to 12 thousand and the net profit is about 50% if not less and surely the “poor” person can afford motorised transport and will be able to reach his destination earlier… mkokoteni which have been in the country since 1890s should be done away with ……
I hope you will perhaps write an article on this and I hope the authorities will look into what are the causes of the jam…
wish you all the best.
RAJJ
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